Martin Place Bets
Jan 1
Gold
−3.5%
Nasdaq 100
+16.2%
Bitcoin
−28.4%
Gold
$4163.93
per ounce
Today
−0.27%
1M
−3.8%
3M
−11.5%
YTD
−3.5%
vs 200d avg−10.4%
Bitcoin
$63,546
BTC / USD
Today
+0.72%
1M
+4.3%
3M
−11.7%
YTD
−28.4%
vs 200d avg−14.9%
Nasdaq 100
$713
QQQ proxy
Today
−1.73%
1M
−0.5%
3M
+21.1%
YTD
+16.2%
vs 200d avg+12.2%
Dollar Index
$28.34
UUP proxy
−0.53%
+4.5% YTD
Fed funds rate
3.75%
target upper bound
0 bps
0 bps YTD
Last change
−25 bpsDec 11, 2025
YTD % change
Tokenized gold vs stablecoin liquidity
XAUT / USDT market cap ratio
$1 USDT buys
0.0138 XAUT
YTD
+14.2%
30D
-1.7%
365D percentile
70th
YTD % change
Bitcoin cycle repeat
What if the last 4 years replay from here?
The right half mirrors the left half, anchored to today's price. Log scale.
Current price
$63,546
Previous top
$124,728
Oct 2025
Projected bottom
$48,759
Nov 2026
Projected top
$385,742
Oct 2029
Hard money vs the printer
Bitcoin, Gold, and Nasdaq 100 vs M2 money supply
Growth multiples since 2016. Log scale.
M2 since 2016
+77%
the printer's pace
Bitcoin vs M2
+108.4x
outperformance
Gold vs M2
+139%
outperformance
Nasdaq 100 vs M2
+435%
outperformance
The real benchmark
S&P 500 priced in dollars, gold, and Bitcoin
One share of the index, denominated three ways. Log scale, since 1984.
S&P in USD
$7,880
vs Jan 2020$3,226
S&P in gold
58.9 g
vs Jan 202063.1 g
S&P in BTC
0.125 BTC
vs Jan 20200.346 BTC
Last close: Jul 6, 2026
Data: CoinGecko · Twelve Data · FRED